A delay in Covid-19 vaccine distribution could impact GDP growth prospects in the next fiscal year and the Reserve Bank may cut policy rates by 50 basis points by June as inflation cools down, a foreign brokerage said on Wednesday.
The country’s real GDP is likely to expand by 11 per cent in the next financial year due to a faster economic recovery and on a low base, says a report.
India’s fiscal deficit is expected to be around 7.5 per cent of the GDP for the current fiscal owing to moderation in revenue collection due to the COVID-19 crisis, experts said. This would be a 100 per cent jump from the Budget estimate of 3.5 per cent of GDP pegged for the current fiscal.
India’s fiscal deficit for year ending in March is likely to be over 7% of gross domestic product, three sources told Reuters, as revenue collections suffered from a lockdown and restrictions to rein in the spread of Covid-19. India’s government had projected a fiscal deficit of 3.5% of GDP for the current year last February.
State government debt as a ratio of their gross domestic product (GDP) is set to rise to a decadal high of 36% on the back of a sharp drop in GST collections and sticky expenditure on account of the pandemic.
Forecasters are revising upwards their projection for the current fiscal’s GDP growth after better-than-expected numbers for the second quarter. Most economists expect India’s GDP to shrink between 6% and 8% in FY21. Until last month, international agencies like the IMF were expecting the economy to shrink by 10%. The RBI is widely expected to continue … Continue reading Forecasters raise GDP projections after Q2 rebound
Reserve Bank of India governor Shaktikanta Das said on Monday that the Indian economy has exhibited stronger than expected pick-up and the growth outlook has improved but cautioned over the need to be watchful over downside risks of a fresh surge in infections, the sustainability of demand after festivals and a possible reassessment by markets … Continue reading Ahead of GDP data, RBI guv says outlook better
India’s gross domestic product (GDP) for the second quarter ended September 30 contracted by 7.5 per cent, government data showed on Friday. However, this pace of contraction is considerably slower than the slump of 23.9 per cent in the previous quarter.
India’s economy is expected to post a smart recovery in the July-September quarter and the contraction witnessed in the June quarter will narrow significantly due to the impact of the festival demand and lifting of the strict lockdown in June.
The gross domestic product (GDP) is likely to contract by 8.6 per cent for the July-September period, which means India will enter into a recession for the first time in history in the first half of this fiscal with two successive quarters of negative growth due to the Covid-19 pandemic, as per an RBI official.
Finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Tuesday said that India’s GDP might be in negative zone or near zero in the current fiscal due the coronavirus pandemic. Speaking at the India Energy Forum of CERAWeek, she said that with unlock, the Indian economy has started showing signs of revival and by next year it will be … Continue reading GDP growth may be in negative zone this fiscal: FM
Congress leader Rahul Gandhi on Wednesday took a dig at the government over IMF growth projections showing Bangladesh closing in on India in terms of per capita GDP this year and described it as a “solid achievement” of six years of BJP’s “hate-filled cultural nationalism”. Indian economy, severely hit by Covid-19, is projected to contract … Continue reading Rahul criticises govt as IMF slashes GDP forecast
RBI decided to keep the key lending rate unchanged in its October policy review meeting. The six-member monetary policy committee, headed by RBI governor Shaktikanta Das, kept repo rate untouched at 4%; and reverse repo rate at 3.35% while maintaining accommodative stance. Das also stated that real GDP expected to contract by 9.5 per cent … Continue reading Repo rate unchanged; GDP to contract by 9.5%: RBI
World Bank estimates India’s GDP to plunge 9.6% in 2020-21. Growth is forecast to return to 5.4% in FY22, assuming Covid-related restrictions are completely lifted by 2022, but mostly reflecting base effects, the report on South Asia unveiled by the bank on Thursday said.
The Indian economy will contract by 9 per cent in 2020-21 as the coronavirus infections are yet to peak and the government is not providing adequate direct fiscal support, ratings agency Crisil said on Thursday.
A tweet put out by the IMF’s chief economist Gita Gopinath confirmed that the Indian economy saw the steepest contraction in the June quarter among G20 countries. China’s economy is shown to have expanded by a robust 12.3% over the March quarter on a non-annualised basis, the UK is the most affected after India, with … Continue reading IMF confirms India’s GDP worst-hit among G20
India’s economy posted its steepest contraction on record in the April-June quarter of the current fiscal year as the strict lockdowns imposed to ward off the spread of the deadly coronavirus infection stalled economic activity, shut out consumption and investment and led to job and income losses. In April-June, it suffered a contraction for the … Continue reading GDP collapses 23.9% in Q1, worst among big economies
India’s gross domestic product growth for the first quarter (ended June 30) of the financial year 2020-21 suffered the largest quarterly slump of 23.9%, as per govt data released Monday. The sharp contraction in GDP numbers is mainly due to closure of business activity during the quarter owing to Covid-19 lockdowns. The GDP figure stood … Continue reading GDP sees record plunge due to Covid pandemic
Central public sector enterprises (CPSEs), which have a combined net worth of close to Rs 12 lakh crore, can boost India’s GDP by 2-3 per cent by leveraging funds and stepping up capital expenditure, Public Enterprises Selection Board (PESB) chairman Rajiv Kumar has said.
Flagging fears that the country’s GDP growth may even touch its lowest since independence in the backdrop of coronavirus pandemic, Infosys founder N R Narayana Murthy on Tuesday said the economy should be brought back on track and people should be prepared to live with the pathogen.
Global forecasting firm Oxford Economics on Tuesday said it expects India’s GDP growth to lose momentum from late third quarter (October-December) of the current fiscal as the push from the initial reopening fades. It further said India fares the worst in its Asia recovery scorecard, implying that the country will likely take the longest to … Continue reading GDP growth to lose momentum from Q3: Report
Citing the yet to be stabilised infection curve and the COVID-19 caseload in economically key states, Singaporean brokerage DBS on Wednesday forecast deeper distress for the country which will lead to a 6 per cent growth contraction in FY21.
After a contraction in the current financial year, India’s economy is forecast to bounce back with a sharp growth rate of 9.5 per cent next year provided it avoids further deterioration in financial sector health, Fitch Ratings said on Wednesday. Fitch Ratings forecast a 5 per cent contraction in the GDP in the ongoing financial … Continue reading ‘Indian economy to grow at 9.5% in next fiscal’
S&P on Wednesday retained India’s sovereign rating at ‘BBB-‘ with a stable outlook, saying that while risks to growth are rising, the economy and fiscal position will stabilise and begin to recover from 2021 onwards. It has projected GDP growth to be 8.5 per cent in 2021-22 and 6.5 per cent in 2022-23.
The gross domestic product or GDP data released on Friday showed that the economy slowed to 3.1 per cent in the January-March quarter, partly as a result of the Covid-19 clampdown. India’s economic growth stood at 4.1 per cent (revised) in the Oct-Dec period (Q3) of 2019-20. The Q2 and Q1 numbers have also been … Continue reading GDP growth slows to 3.1% in Q4; core sector output contracts 38.1% in April
Assuming economic activity gets restored in a phased manner, especially in second half of this year, and taking into consideration favourable base effects, it is expected that the combination of fiscal, monetary and administrative measures being currently undertaken would create conditions for a gradual revival in activity in second half of 2020-21.”
The Reserve Bank of India on Friday unexpectedly cut key interest rates by 40 basis points, citing negative GDP growth in the current fiscal amidst a “double whammy” of loss of production as well as demand even as it said it expected inflation to harden in the first half of the fiscal year. The RBI … Continue reading RBI slashes key rate 40 bps to new all-time low
Congress leader P Chidambaram on Saturday asked RBI governor Shaktikanta Das to “bluntly” tell the government to do its duty and take fiscal measures if he feels that the demand has collapsed and the GDP growth is heading towards negative territory. He also asked if the PM or the finance minister will laud themselves for … Continue reading ‘Tell govt to …’: Chidambaram’s advice to RBI
Painting a gloomy picture of the economy, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Friday said the impact of COVID-19 is more severe than anticipated and the GDP (gross domestic product) growth during 2020-21 is likely to remain in the negative territory.